Lowe's Two-Run Single Breaks It Open as Reds Top Cardinals 5-3
Nathaniel Lowe's single to left in the 10th inning scored two runs and swung St. Louis's win probability from 38% to 9%, turning a one-run Cincinnati lead into a three-run cushion the Cardinals couldn't recover from. The Reds took it 5-3, with three home runs and a clutch extra-inning rally doing the heavy lifting.
For nine innings, this game was a back-and-forth slugfest dressed up as a pitcher's duel. St. Louis drew first blood in the second when a Fermín sacrifice fly to left scored Burleson. Cincinnati answered immediately in the third — Elly De La Cruz launched one 410 feet to left center to tie it, only for Ivan Herrera to respond one batter later with a 411-foot shot of his own to put the Cardinals back in front. The Reds refused to blink: Ke'Bryan Hayes homered to left in the fifth, 387 feet, to knot it at two apiece. Three home runs in three innings, and the scoreboard was right back where it started.
The starting pitchers both held their ground after the early fireworks. Andrew Abbott went 6.0 innings for Cincinnati, allowing 3 hits and 2 earned runs while walking 4 and striking out 4 — functional, if not dominant. Kyle Leahy was sharper for St. Louis, also going 6.0 innings but punching out 9 while giving up 6 hits and 2 earned runs. On paper, Leahy outpitched Abbott. The Cardinals just couldn't cash in enough against Cincinnati's bullpen. Brock Burke was particularly stingy, throwing 1.1 innings of scoreless ball with 2 strikeouts and nothing on the hit column.
The story of the night was the 10th inning. Cincinnati strung together the kind of rally that looks simple in a box score and feels devastating in real time. Sal Stewart singled to right to score Stephenson and give the Reds a 3-2 lead. Then Lowe stepped up and singled to left, scoring both De La Cruz and Stewart — that two-run hit is where the game was decided, swinging St. Louis's win probability from 38% all the way down to 9%, a 29-point collapse in a single at-bat. The Cardinals made it cosmetically interesting when Burleson singled to left to score Wetherholt and cut it to 5-3, but that's all they'd get. Lowe finished 3-for-5 with 2 RBI, and De La Cruz went 2-for-5 with a home run, 2 runs scored, and an RBI — the kind of performance that looks like a player who simply refused to let his team lose.