Reds Visit Busch Looking to Chip Into Cardinals' Four-Game Edge

The Cincinnati Reds arrive at Busch Stadium on Sunday afternoon sitting at 48-55, four games behind a Cardinals club that has carved out a 53-51 mark and the clear upper hand in this NL Central subplot. Our model doesn't have a validated read on this one — so rather than force a number, let's focus on what the rosters are actually telling us.

The pitching matchup is genuinely intriguing on paper. Andrew Abbott is expected to start for Cincinnati, while Kyle Leahy is set to take the mound for St. Louis. Neither name carries the kind of top-of-the-rotation weight that reshapes a betting line on its own, which means the offenses could have real say in how this afternoon unfolds — and both clubs have the personnel to make noise.

For the Reds, the two names worth tracking are Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart. De La Cruz is hitting .276, a number that reflects a hitter who can hurt you in multiple ways. Stewart, meanwhile, is the blunt instrument — 21 home runs and 75 RBI on the season. That's a legitimate middle-of-the-order presence, and if Abbott keeps the Cardinals quiet early, Stewart is the bat most likely to flip the scoreboard in a hurry.

St. Louis counters with Jordan Walker, who is flat-out raking. A .290 average, 22 home runs, and 77 RBI make Walker the most complete offensive threat on either roster today. He leads both clubs in all three of those categories, and at Busch Stadium in front of a home crowd, he's the player Cincinnati's pitching staff needs to neutralize most. If Leahy can give the Cardinals length and Walker stays hot, the home side has a clear path to a comfortable afternoon. The Reds, sitting seven games below .500, need a performance that punches above their record — and that starts with Abbott keeping Walker in the ballpark.