Winning in October Won't Fix What's Broken in September

Mike Babcock has coached through dysfunction before. He knows what a fractured room smells like, and he knows that no amount of systems work in training camp repairs it. What he is walking into in Edmonton right now is not merely a roster problem — it is an organizational cohesion problem, and those are harder to fix with a whiteboard.

Start with the ice, because that part is complicated enough on its own. Five players are out heading into camp: Frederik Andersen, Adam Henrique, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark, and Alec Regula. Andersen's absence is the one that stings most, because his entire purpose was to provide the veteran goaltending stability this franchise desperately needed. The Oilers signed him in July specifically for that reason, and he hasn't practiced a day of camp yet. Meanwhile, Zach Hyman managed only 25 games last season, leaving a forward-group workload gap that the front office has tried to paper over with depth signings. GM Stan Bowman suggested Savoie's recovery could be short-term, and that would help — but "could be" is not a lineup. Babcock is being asked to build early-season habits with an incomplete set of pieces, which is a significant ask of any coach beginning a new tenure, let alone one whose mandate is defensive discipline across a full 82 games.

Then there is the Formenton situation, which is not really about hockey at all. Formenton is the third player acquitted in the Hockey Canada sexual assault case to receive an NHL contract since the trial concluded in July 2025. The Oilers signed him to a one-year deal at $850,000, and within 24 hours the team had lost the public support of superfan "Mama Stanley" and thousands of fans had signed a petition demanding the organization reverse course. Bowman defended the decision publicly. The fanbase, in significant numbers, is telling him they disagree. That is not a noise problem. That is a trust problem.

Here is what history tells us about teams that try to win while organizationally divided: they can do it, but only when the on-ice product is dominant enough to paper over the cracks. The early-2000s Oilers dynasty teams had the luxury of being so good that internal friction rarely surfaced long enough to matter. This version of Edmonton does not have that luxury. McDavid posted 82 points in 48 games last season and Draisaitl added 68, but the Oilers won only 37% of their one-goal games — the exact category that separates contenders from pretenders. You cannot overcome that kind of close-game futility with star power alone. You need a room that is locked in, a fanbase that is invested, and a coaching staff that has full command of the environment. Right now, Babcock has none of those three things fully.

The defensive breakthrough at the end of last season — 2.3 goals allowed per game over the final 10 — is real, and it is the most legitimate reason for optimism about what Babcock can build here. That number represents a genuine shift in how this team played. But a 10-game sample at the end of a lost season is not a foundation; it is a proof of concept. Sustaining it across a full campaign, while managing injuries, while navigating a fanbase fracture, while integrating new pieces on the blue line and in net — that is the actual test. My declaration is this: Edmonton will not make the playoffs unless Babcock establishes genuine organizational unity before the calendar turns to November. The roster talent is there. The margin for internal disorder is not.