What Buehler and Vásquez Actually Are—and Why That's San Diego's Real Problem

Michael King's opt-out is already being framed as a transaction story, a free-agent market question, a matter of whether San Diego can afford to re-sign him or find a comparable arm. That framing is too narrow. The number that matters most isn't King's next contract—it's the 4.77 and 4.09 sitting next to Walker Buehler's and Randy Vásquez's names in the season ledger. Those are the ERAs the Padres are building around now that King is gone, and they tell a story the rotation optimists aren't telling loudly enough.

King was the load-bearing wall. He made 39 appearances, threw 214 innings, and posted a 3.57 ERA while the two starters behind him were significantly worse. Buehler gave San Diego a serviceable innings count but surrendered runs at a rate that belongs in the back half of a rotation, not the middle. Vásquez was better—his 4.09 ERA is defensible in a number-three role—but the season also included a frightening stretch where he was hospitalized after a fainting spell following an ankle injury from a comebacker. He finished the year. Whether he begins 2027 fully healthy is a genuine question, not a formality. The combined ERA for those two, plus the innings King is no longer providing, is the math San Diego has to solve before pitchers and catchers report.

What makes this particularly acute is what the depth chart actually shows below Buehler and Vásquez. Griffin Canning, who appeared in 30 games out of the bullpen, posted a 5.68 ERA. He is on the roster. He is not a rotation answer. The five players currently on the 60-Day IL include Lucas Giolito, who was supposed to provide veteran depth and never got the chance to deliver it. The organizational pipeline produced a season's worth of injury news and roster shuffling, and the rotation absorbed most of the damage. Asking Buehler and Vásquez to anchor a staff while San Diego searches for a true front-line starter is not a plan—it's a placeholder.

Here's where I'll make my own argument plainly: the Padres need at minimum two starters this offseason, not one. One to replace King's production, and one to insulate against Vásquez's health uncertainty. The beat narrative all season was how this team survived its injury list through offensive surges and bullpen performance—Jeremiah Estrada's elite work, Bradgley Rodriguez's steadiness, Adrian Morejon's strikeout rate. That formula worked for a 91-win season. It is not a sustainable model for a team trying to push deeper into October. Bullpens absorb slack; they don't replace rotation innings over 162 games.

The Ramón Laureano signing, flagged recently as a low-risk move for the outfield, signals that San Diego is willing to operate in the bargain tier of the market. My read is that approach cannot extend to the rotation. The Padres finished 2026 going 20-10 over their final 30 games, which is a genuine achievement, but that run happened with King still in the fold. The version of this team that takes the field in April without him—relying on Buehler's 4.77 and whatever Vásquez can give—is a meaningfully different and weaker team. The opt-out didn't create the rotation problem. It just made it impossible to ignore.