The Stars Are Coming Back. The Bullpen They're Coming Back To Is Already Broken.
Here is the problem with celebrating the Dodgers' returning stars: Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 2.46 ERA doesn't protect a four-run lead in the seventh inning. Ohtani's .939 OPS doesn't get the final six outs. The offensive firepower everyone is relieved to see reassembled is only as useful as the relief corps waiting behind the rotation — and that relief corps, right now, is held together with tape.
Start with what's actually on the injury list. Six pitchers are on the 60-day IL: Gavin Stone, Will Klein, Eric Lauer, Jake Cousins, Brusdar Graterol, Ben Casparius. Edwin Diaz is on the 15-day IL. Edgardo Henriquez is on the 15-day IL. That is eight arms gone, and the depth chart at reliever shows the three most-used options — Henriquez, Jack Dreyer, Alex Vesia — each logging production shares in the low single digits, which tells you how thin the usage has been spread and how little any of them has been trusted with a high-leverage moment. Then there is Justin Wrobleski, the All-Star, who logged 149.3 innings across 31 appearances as a reliever — an enormous workload — and has appeared for just 2.2 innings over his last five outings. Whether that is injury, exhaustion, or deliberate management, the timing is the worst imaginable.
The one genuine bright spot is a rookie reliever who has posted a 0.00 ERA across six appearances. That is real. But one untested arm carrying a postseason bullpen is not a plan; it is a prayer.
The offensive returns are meaningful and should not be minimized. Ohtani as a hitter — .293/.383/.556 with 13 home runs in 60 games — is a legitimate force even without his pitching. Andy Pages at 14 home runs and 51 RBI gives the lineup a middle-of-the-order presence that was absent for weeks. And Roki Sasaki, whatever his struggles at a 5.07 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, at least gives Dave Roberts a fourth name to write on a postseason rotation card. The team is scoring 4.3 runs per game over the last 10, up from 3.7 in the prior stretch, and the pitching has tightened to 2.6 runs allowed per game. The 7-3 record over the last 10 games is not noise. The division lead is real.
But here is the October math that worries me. In a short series, the rotation advantage Los Angeles holds — Yamamoto is as good as anyone in the NL, and Glasnow at 7-2 with a 3.69 ERA and 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings is a genuine number-two — gets neutralized the moment a game reaches the sixth inning and Roberts has to choose between Wrobleski on fumes and an unproven rookie. Every team that has beaten the Dodgers in October over the past decade has done it by surviving their starters and attacking their bridge. This year, the bridge is not just thin — it is missing planks. My read is that the returning stars will make the Dodgers harder to beat in the regular season and will almost certainly lock up the division. Whether they make the Dodgers hard enough to beat in October depends on an answer that the current injury list does not provide.