The Makar Deal Is Historic. The Finishing Problem Is Still Real.

Two days ago I wrote that locking in Cale Makar solves nothing if Colorado still can't score when it matters. Now Makar himself has spoken publicly for the first time since signing the largest contract in NHL history, embracing the pressure that comes with the $20.4 million annual price tag, and the reception around the league has been warm and largely deserved. He's one of only fourteen players in NHL history to win multiple Norris Trophies. The eight-year, $163.2 million extension is a franchise cornerstone, full stop. But I want to be precise about what a cornerstone actually is: it holds the structure up. It is not the structure itself. And Colorado's structure has a crack in it that no defenseman, however brilliant, can seal from the blue line.

Here is the declaration, plainly stated: the Avalanche will not win a Stanley Cup in 2027 unless their depth forwards learn to finish. Not unless Makar plays better — he posted 55 points in 48 games last season and was a plus-29. Not unless MacKinnon declines — he put up 83 points and was the best player on the ice most nights. The problem is the layer beneath them, and it was catastrophic when the calendar flipped to playoff hockey. Ross Colton took 29 shots over the final ten regular-season games and scored zero goals. Gabriel Landeskog took 25 and scored one. That is 54 shots and one goal from two forwards who were supposed to be contributors, not passengers. Vegas didn't outskate Colorado. Colorado outshot itself into elimination.

The offseason response was real. Joe Sakic traded Nichushkin — who finished with 31 points in 40 games and was a non-factor when it mattered — to Columbus, then brought in Jaden Schwartz on a three-year deal and added Georgii Merkulov on a one-year contract. The logic is sound: Merkulov is a reclamation project Boston gave up on, a player with genuine offensive instincts who just needs the right environment. Schwartz, when healthy, is a reliable secondary contributor with playoff experience. The problem is that Schwartz remains out with no clear timeline as training camp approaches. Colorado has already signed Zach L'Heureux as another contingency layer. That's three new forwards added to address a finishing crisis, and the most important of them hasn't skated yet.

This is where the Makar extension and the finishing crisis intersect in a way that should make Avalanche fans uncomfortable. The $20.4 million AAV is historic, and it is justified on merit — but it consumes cap space that limits how aggressively Sakic can course-correct if Schwartz misses significant time and Merkulov doesn't produce. The margin for error on the forward group is thin, and it was already thin before the ink dried. MacKinnon, Necas, and Brock Nelson — who added 41 points last season — give Colorado a top-three center group that most franchises would trade their futures for. But the 2026 playoffs proved that a dominant top line and a broken finishing layer is a combination that ends in a hotel room in Vegas, watching someone else advance.

The comparable here is instructive. The early 2010s Pittsburgh Penguins had Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin locked up at historic cost, and for several years they kept running into the same wall: depth forwards who generated chances and converted nothing in elimination games. It took them years of roster iteration — not one offseason — before the secondary scoring stabilized enough to let the top end carry a Cup run. Colorado is at that inflection point right now. Makar's extension signals that ownership and management believe they are still in their contention window. My read is that they're right about the window and right about Makar. But Schwartz needs to be on the ice in October, Merkulov needs to be what Boston couldn't unlock, and at least one of the depth forwards who went cold in Vegas needs to rediscover the net. The anchor is set. The ship still has to sail.