The Ducks Matched Philadelphia's Offer Sheet. Then San Jose Reminded Everyone What That Money Actually Costs.

For three weeks, Leo Carlsson's five-year, $18 million AAV deal was the most expensive commitment to a young center in NHL history. Then Macklin Celebrini signed for $18.8 million in San Jose, and Anaheim's franchise-defining bet slid to second place almost before the ink dried. The demotion in the record books is cosmetically trivial. What it reveals about the market Anaheim just entered is not.

Here is the number that matters: $18 million per year, committed to a 21-year-old who produced 48 points in 49 games last season. That is a legitimate rate of production—roughly a point per game, which is the threshold that separates a franchise center from a very good one. The Ducks matched Philadelphia's offer sheet because they believed Carlsson belongs in that category, and the case is defensible. But the Celebrini extension is a useful calibration. San Jose just paid $800,000 more per year for their own young center, and the market has now established that this is simply what elite 21-year-old pivots cost in 2026. Anaheim did not overpay by the standards of this moment. They paid exactly the going rate, which is itself a sobering thought for a team that finished 43-39 and missed the playoffs.

The harder question is what the commitment cost structurally. McTavish is gone, traded to St. Louis for draft picks. Zellweger is in Buffalo. John Carlson moved to Carolina. Troy Terry, who led the team with 33 assists last season, is recovering from hip surgery and won't be available at the start of 2026-27. The Ducks did not gut their roster to match the offer sheet—these moves reflect a broader asset reallocation—but the cumulative effect is a roster that is thinner at every position except the one Carlsson occupies. Matching Philadelphia was the right call. Doing it while simultaneously dismantling the supporting cast is the tension that makes this offseason genuinely complicated.

The defensive picture is the most acute concern. Jackson LaCombe logged 24.4 minutes a night last season and anchored a back end that still allowed 4.1 goals per game over the final ten games—a collapse that, more than any offensive drought, is what kept Anaheim out of the postseason. Pavel Mintyukov's new extension provides some structural security, but the strain on him was already visible by April: his ice time surged nearly seven minutes per game in that final stretch as the depth behind LaCombe evaporated. Signing Klepov to an entry-level deal and acquiring Sean Farrell addresses organizational depth. It does not address the immediate problem of a defense that bent badly when the season was on the line.

My read is this: the Carlsson commitment is correct and necessary, but it has compressed the margin for error on every other decision the Ducks make. When your center earns $18 million and your roster around him is being rebuilt with draft picks, AHL acquisitions, and a recovering wing, the gap between the franchise's ceiling and its floor becomes uncomfortably wide. Celebrini's extension didn't change Anaheim's situation—it just made the arithmetic of this era visible. Building around a generational center is a strategy. Doing it with a thinner roster than you had twelve months ago, while the division around you continues to spend, is a bet that the foundation is strong enough to carry the weight. The Ducks are about to find out whether it is.