The Diamondbacks Are Scoring Their Way Out of a Rotation Fire — and the Numbers Say It's Real
Everyone wants to talk about the thirteen arms on the injured list. That is the right instinct, and I have spent most of this summer writing about what Arizona's rotation crisis costs them. But something happened over the last ten games that demands the other side of the ledger get its due: this offense is averaging 6.5 runs per game, up from 2.9 over the prior twenty. A swing of 3.6 runs per game is not a hot week. It is a structural shift, and it is the only reason Arizona still holds a playoff seed.
The skeptic's response is that the three-game losing streak that ended July 27 proves the offense can't sustain it. I'd push back on that framing. The Diamondbacks went 7-3 over those ten games even while losing Jordan Lawlar — their hottest hitter at a .993 OPS in twenty games — to the IL on July 25. The skid happened without him. The rebound win over Pittsburgh on July 28 happened without him too. That tells you something about how broadly the production is distributed right now.
Look at who is hitting. LuJames Groover has been remarkable in limited action, posting an OPS north of 1.000. Jacob Amaya is slashing .333/.400/.500 in thirteen games. Corbin Carroll, the anchor, is at .270/.375/.494 with 8 home runs and 30 RBIs across 66 games — the consistent floor the lineup is built around. Ryan Waldschmidt is hitting .322 in 36 games without a home run, which means he is doing damage the traditional box score undersells. This is not one bat catching fire. It is a lineup finding multiple avenues to score, which is exactly what a team needs when its rotation is held together with Eduardo Rodriguez and prayers.
Rodriguez, to his credit, is doing more than his share. At 9-3 with a 2.64 ERA, he has been as good as any starter in the league this season, and the fan base recognizes it — the Reacts survey results earlier this week made clear how much goodwill E-Rod has built. Brandon Pfaadt at 5-1 with a 3.62 ERA has been quietly steady. But Merrill Kelly's ERA sits above five, Zac Gallen is on the IL after a 6.40 ERA season, and the staff is allowing 4.3 runs per game over the last ten. The offense isn't complementing the pitching. It is outrunning it.
That is the tension embedded in Arizona's current run differential: plus-1.8 per game over the last ten, against a season-long figure that is essentially flat. The offense has bought the team a margin it did not have in July. My read is that the question is no longer whether Arizona can score enough — clearly it can — but whether the rotation can stay functional long enough for that offense to matter in September. With Soroka also on the IL now and Gallen still shelved, the answer to that question is genuinely uncertain. The Diamondbacks are not a team in decline. They are a team in a race against their own medical report, and right now the bats are winning it.