The Demidov Extension Is Real. So Is the 41-Percent Problem Behind Him on Defense.

Start with the depth chart, not the press release. Lane Hutson accounted for 41 percent of Montreal's defensive production last season — 10 goals, 39 assists, 49 points in 50 games, logging 23.1 minutes a night. The next name on that depth chart is Mike Matheson, who generated roughly 10 percent of the unit's production. Alexandre Carrier sits third. That is not a depth chart; that is a star and a prayer. The roster analysis flags Matheson's output at approximately 25 percent of a league-median starting defenseman. When one player is doing 41 percent of the work and his backup is operating at a quarter of the league standard, you do not have a blue line — you have a tightrope.

This matters because the Demidov extension, signed July 1 and spanning eight years, is being celebrated as the organizational cornerstone moment it genuinely is. Demidov posted 10 goals and 32 assists across 50 games in his rookie season — 42 points at 15.1 minutes of ice time per game — and the upside is real. Nick Suzuki's 1.1 points per game over 49 games gives the forward group a legitimate engine. Cole Caufield added 23 goals and 47 points. Juraj Slafkovsky contributed 40 points in 50 games. The top six is not the concern. The concern is what happens when playoff hockey compresses everything and the blue line has to carry weight it demonstrably cannot.

I have been writing about 2.8 since this offseason started, and I am going to keep writing about it until the organization addresses what it actually means. Montreal averaged 3.9 goals per game over a 20-game stretch late in the season, then fell to 2.8 in the final 10. That 1.1-goal-per-game decline in the highest-leverage games of the year is not random variance — it is a structural warning about a forward group that can be contained when defenses get organized and physical. The Kirby Dach signing at one year and $3.6 million is a reasonable depth move, but it addresses secondary scoring, not the underlying mechanism of the collapse. A thin blue line that cannot move pucks efficiently out of its own zone is what turns a 3.9-goal team into a 2.8-goal team. That is where the investigation should be focused.

My read is this: the forward core is talented enough to compete, but it is being asked to compensate for structural deficiencies that skill alone cannot paper over. Suzuki, Caufield, Demidov, and Slafkovsky are all 25 or younger. The instinct to trust youth is understandable. But playoff hockey has a way of exposing exactly the kind of depth gap that exists between Hutson and everyone else on Montreal's blue line. When opponents can identify and neutralize a single point-of-origin for defensive puck movement — and right now, Hutson is almost entirely that origin — the forward group's offensive output does not just dip. It collapses. We watched it happen in April. The number was 2.8.

The front office has been active and directionally correct: Berard for depth, Gallagher moved for cap flexibility, Demidov locked in, Dach signed. None of those moves close the gap between Hutson at 41 percent and Matheson at 10. Training camp opens in roughly two months. If Montreal arrives there without a credible second defenseman who can eat meaningful minutes and generate at something closer to a league-median rate, the 2.8 is not a cautionary tale from last season — it is a preview of the next one.