Restrepo at WR156: The Market Is Sleeping on a Real Target Share

The market has Xavier Restrepo at WR156 (Rotowire, via Sleeper, ADP 397 overall). His 2025 opportunity ranked him closer to WR87. That is a 69-spot gap, and this desk thinks the market is meaningfully wrong in the downward direction.

Here is the core of the argument. In the two games Restrepo played in 2025, he averaged 3.5 targets per game. That is not a depth-chart afterthought number. That is a player who was being found by his quarterback with real regularity — enough that, when you rank every receiver by opportunity, he lands nearly 70 spots higher than where drafters are currently taking him. The market is pricing him like a practice-squad name. The usage says something different.

The honest counterargument is the sample. Two games is not a season. It is a glimpse, and glimpses can lie. A player can run hot on targets for two weeks because of injury elsewhere, because of a specific game plan, because of noise. That is the strongest case for the market being right — Restrepo's number is so small that it barely qualifies as evidence. This desk does not dismiss that.

But here is why it still matters at this price. At pick 397 overall, you are not being asked to trust a two-game sample as gospel. You are being asked whether a player who showed 3.5 targets per game in his NFL exposure is worth a late-draft flier. The answer is yes. Tennessee's 2025 offense ran a pass rate north of 60 percent, which means the target pool was real and reasonably deep. Restrepo was eating from it. At WR156, he costs you nothing — he is a dart throw in the final rounds of a draft where every other option at that range is equally speculative, and most of them do not have a target-rate argument behind them.

The ADP movement is a minor footnote, not a thesis. A two-position improvement over three snapshots is essentially flat — the market has not discovered him, and there is no trending signal on Sleeper. This is not a rising stock. It is an overlooked one, which is a different and more sustainable kind of value.

What would prove this call wrong: Restrepo's 2025 targets came in a context that no longer exists — different personnel around him, a scheme that has since changed, or a depth chart that has been rebuilt above him — and if any of those conditions hold, the opportunity number is historical noise rather than a baseline.