Pittsburgh's rotation is short, and the winning-season math just got harder

The Pirates are 71-73 with 19 games left, and Braxton Ashcraft — their staff ace, 15-6 on the year — is sitting on the 15-day IL. I wrote about this when it happened, but the standings have shifted enough since to warrant another look. A winning season requires Pittsburgh to go 11-8 the rest of the way. That was already a stretch for a team that has played .500 ball over its last 30 games. Without Ashcraft in the rotation, it's a steeper climb.

Mitch Keller is also gone for the year on the 60-day IL, which means Paul Skenes and Bubba Chandler are carrying the front end of a rotation that suddenly has no margin. Skenes has been reliable all season; Chandler has been serviceable. Jared Jones gives them a third arm with genuine swing-and-miss stuff. But that's a short staff for a stretch run, and Carmen Mlodzinski — who has been stretched between starting and bullpen work all year — has been getting hit hard lately, which doesn't help the back-end options.

The bullpen picture is its own concern. Kirby Yates, who had been quietly excellent in relief, is also on the IL. Mason Montgomery has been the most durable arm in the pen all season. That group will be asked to cover a lot of innings over the next three weeks.

The 7-3 run over the last 10 games bought Pittsburgh some goodwill and kept the winning-season goal alive. Ashcraft's absence doesn't kill it, but it removes the one starter who had been pitching like a number one. The next 19 games will tell us whether this team can hold together without him.