Now the ALDS, Too

Judge is out for the division series as well, which extends what has become the defining fact of New York's October: their best player has not been available, and the team has had to find another way. The 10-day IL designation left some room for hope heading into the wild-card round, but that window has closed. He won't be in the lineup when the ALDS begins.

The rotation situation compounds things. Schmidt and Weathers are both on the IL, which leaves Schlittler, Warren, Fried, and Cole as the functional core. That's a workable four, but there's no margin. One rough outing from Cole — who finished the regular season at 10-10 — and the Yankees are asking Blackburn to bridge innings he wasn't built to bridge. Blackburn has been excellent all year out of the bullpen, but 67 appearances is already a heavy load to carry into October.

What's left is a team that can pitch well enough to stay in games and hit well enough to win some of them. Rice, Bellinger, and the rest of the lineup are capable. They proved that through a 19-11 stretch over the last 30 games. But this group has been 16-26 in one-run games all season, and the ALDS will be full of one-run games. That's the number that keeps coming back.