Miller Is the Problem That Musgrove Can't Fix

Joe Musgrove on the Wild Card roster is a fine story, and I wrote it up yesterday. The sharper question going into a one-game playoff is what happens in the ninth inning.

Mason Miller was the team's All-Star this year, and for most of the season that selection looked earned — a 1.66 ERA is closer-of-the-year territory. Over his last five appearances, that number has ballooned to 8.28. In a Wild Card game, you get one bad inning and you go home. The Padres have the offense to build leads — they've been scoring at a rate that would have been hard to believe two months ago — but a lead handed to Miller right now is not a locked door.

The depth chart shows Bradgley Rodriguez as the next option, and he's had a quiet, solid season: a 2.23 ERA across 78 appearances. Adrian Morejon has been even better over a longer stretch. Neither is Miller at his best, but Miller at his current worst is a different calculation. My read is that manager's decision in the ninth inning of a Wild Card game — whether to stay with Miller or go elsewhere — is the most consequential call San Diego faces, and it has nothing to do with Musgrove.

Worth watching the next few days to see if Miller rights himself before the bracket locks in.