Gibbs at 1 or Robinson at 2: Which RB Do You Actually Want This Week?
The market has Jahmyr Gibbs as RB1 (Rotowire via Sleeper, overall ADP 1, 22.3 projected PPR points), and the case is real: 18 touchdowns last season between rushing and receiving, a receiving role that actually grew late in the year with targets climbing to 7.0 per game over the final four weeks. That dual-threat floor is why he sits atop every board. The honest counterargument is that his rushing yards fell sharply in that same four-game stretch — 40.3 per game against a full-season average of 71.9 — which means the late-season target spike was partly covering for a ground game that had cooled. When both classes of evidence point in different directions, you call it mixed, not a lock. Gibbs is a fine RB1. He is not a runaway one.
Which brings us to the flag. Bijan Robinson is the market's RB2 (overall ADP 2, 21.5 projected PPR points), and the usage data makes a stronger case than that half-point gap suggests. Over the final four games of 2025, Robinson averaged 18 carries, 99.3 rushing yards, 8.3 targets, and 54.5 receiving yards per game. That is not a hot streak painted in one color — both the ground work and the pass-catching volume were climbing simultaneously. His full-season averages already led this entire board in rushing yards per game at 86.9 and receiving yards per game at 48.2. The market's number acknowledges he is elite; it just refuses to put him first. The lean here is over — Robinson has the stronger recent usage profile across both evidence classes, and the gap between him and Gibbs is wider than 0.8 PPR points implies. Call it a top-2 lock either way, but if you have the second pick and are debating a trade up, the evidence says stay put.
Jonathan Taylor is the market's RB4 (overall ADP 8, 18.9 projected PPR points), and there is a quiet concern worth naming. His full-season rushing average of 93.2 yards on 19 carries was excellent, and his 18 rushing touchdowns led this entire board. The problem is the last four games: same 19 carries, but only 57.3 yards, a drop of roughly 36 yards per game that his modest receiving work cannot compensate for. The touchdown total is real and it matters, but a back whose yards-per-carry declined that sharply late in the year, drawing Baltimore in Week 1, warrants some caution. The market has him right around where the evidence lands — RB4 is fair, not a bargain.
Derrick Henry sits at RB8 (overall ADP 22, 15.7 projected PPR points), and in standard scoring he is dramatically underpriced by this board — his last four games averaged 21.3 carries and 142.5 rushing yards with 16 rushing touchdowns on the season. In PPR, though, the receiving floor is essentially zero: one target, zero receptions, zero receiving yards over that same four-game stretch. If you play standard, Henry is a strong over relative to RB8. In PPR, the market has him correctly discounted, and the gap between his projection and Cook's above him reflects exactly that.
James Cook at RB6 (overall ADP 15, 17.0 projected PPR points) is a mild under concern in PPR. His full-season rushing numbers were strong — 95.3 yards per game on 18.2 carries — but his receiving work thinned noticeably late: 1.3 receptions and 8 receiving yards per game over the final four. In a format that rewards catches, a back whose pass-catching role appears to be contracting is worth watching. The market has him ahead of Henry specifically because of PPR upside, but the recent data suggests that upside is narrowing.
The rest of the board: Christian McCaffrey at RB3 is fair given his receiving volume and touchdown production, though his late-season receiving yards dipped while carries held steady — a mixed signal the market has already priced in. De'Von Achane at RB5 saw both his carries and targets soften in the final four games; the market's number feels about right. Chase Brown at RB7 actually showed improvement late, with both carries and receiving yards climbing — he may be the quiet value just outside the top tier. Kenneth Walker at RB9 carries modest receiving upside and a touchdown total that trails the backs above him; fair. Omarion Hampton at RB10 has only nine games of data, which makes any projection genuinely uncertain — treat him as a high-variance dart. Saquon Barkley at RB11 is a workhorse in carries but his receiving role dried up almost completely late in 2025, making him a standard-scoring asset priced for PPR. Javonte Williams at RB12 rounds out the board with solid but unspectacular numbers across both categories.
The biggest mispricing on this board is Robinson at RB2. Both his rushing and receiving usage trended up simultaneously over the final stretch of 2025, his full-season averages led this board in two key categories, and the market is pricing him as a near-equal to Gibbs when the usage evidence suggests he may actually be the stronger weekly producer right now. What would prove this wrong: if Robinson's late-season target surge was scheme-driven and the new season returns him to a more limited receiving role, the PPR gap between him and Gibbs widens back in the market's favor.