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Rukkr Original NHL · COL By The Analyst Sep 27, 2026

Four Positions. Zero Solutions. That's Colorado's Playoff Problem.

The 57-win season gave Sakic's offseason a flattering report card. Don't accept it. Beneath the final record sits a structural reality that neither the wins nor the goal differential can paper over: four starter-level positions — center depth, right wing, left wing depth, and the defensive second pair — all finished the season producing at a fraction of what a legitimate playoff roster needs from those spots. Not slightly below. Not close. At or near zero relative to what a league-average starter at each position contributes.

Start with the most damaging one, because it sits at the top of the lineup. Nicolas Roy is Colorado's nominal second-line center. The depth chart lists him first among centers behind MacKinnon. The production numbers say he gave the Avalanche essentially nothing at that position all season. That's not a slump — that's a structural absence at a position that playoff hockey punishes mercilessly. Every team that has beaten Colorado in recent postseasons has found a way to neutralize MacKinnon's line and force the issue elsewhere. When "elsewhere" is Roy's line, that's not a matchup problem. It's a roster problem.

The right wing situation is equally stark. Logan O'Connor draws the starter's role; the numbers put him in the same empty category as Roy. Meanwhile, the depth behind Artturi Lehkonen on the left side — Adam Beckman, Tristen Nielsen — produced nothing meaningful either. That's three of the four flagged positions sitting at the same level: starter's minutes, replacement-level output. The one partial bright spot is T.J. Hughes on the right side, who actually produced at a strong rate, but he's the second option at that position, not the first. The depth chart and the production chart are pointing in opposite directions.

I've written this week about how the defensive tightening was real and earned, and how the 14-15 record in one-goal games reveals the conversion problem in its sharpest form. What I haven't said plainly enough is that those two findings are connected by the same root cause. Colorado's defense allowed 1.5 goals per game over the final 10 games of the season — a genuine achievement. But the offense scored just 2.5 goals per game over that same stretch, down a full goal from the prior 20. The team won those games because the margin for error on defense was essentially zero, and the defense held. In a seven-game series, that margin doesn't hold forever. At some point, the depth forwards have to score.

My read is that Sakic understood the problem intellectually — the Schwartz signing, the Merkulov gamble, the L'Heureux addition all point to someone who knew the secondary scoring was broken. But understanding a problem and solving it are different things, and the season's final accounting shows the solution didn't arrive. Victor Olofsson, who departed for Vegas after the season, was one of the team's more productive secondary contributors at 23 points in 50 games — and he's gone. The waivers activity this week, with Christian Wolanin and Domenick Fensore cut loose, is roster trimming, not roster building. The structural holes that the regular season exposed are entering the next phase of competition largely intact. MacKinnon and Necas can carry a team through 86 regular-season games. Whether they can carry it through four playoff rounds while four supporting positions contribute at starter-level minutes and near-zero production — that's the question the 57-win season never had to answer.

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