Four Goals a Game. Detroit Has Seen This Movie.
The number that should alarm every Red Wings fan right now isn't the injury report or the GM vacancy or the unsigned defenseman. It's 4.0 — goals allowed per game over Detroit's last 10 contests. That figure represents a full goal more per night than the team was surrendering in the 20 games before it, and anyone who watched last season's collapse knows exactly where this road leads.
Because they've been here. Last season's version of this breakdown was even more severe — 4.5 goals allowed per game over the final 10 games of 2025–26, up nearly two full goals from the preceding stretch. That defensive implosion, not offensive failure, is what kept Detroit out of the playoffs. Moritz Seider logged over 25 minutes a night and posted a plus-13 on the season. Simon Edvinsson was a plus-7 in limited games. The underlying talent on this blue line is real. And yet the goals came anyway, in waves, at the worst possible time. Now, barely into a new season, the same pattern is reasserting itself.
What makes this particularly difficult to dismiss is the context layered around it. Larkin is out. The goaltending situation was already fragile before the season started — two retirements, a trade, and a one-year Daniil Tarasov signing as the primary stabilizing move. The depth chart behind the top defensive pair features names still working toward establishing themselves at this level. When the structure around your blue line is that thin, a goals-against spike isn't just a slump. It's a stress test the roster may not be built to pass.
The September 22 win over Pittsburgh — a 7–4 result — offered genuine encouragement about Detroit's offensive ceiling. Lucas Raymond and Alex DeBrincat give this team a scoring foundation that can carry nights. But 7–4 is also a game in which you allowed four goals, and that detail got swallowed by the celebratory framing. My read is that the offense will be fine enough. The question I keep returning to is whether this defense, as currently constructed, can hold a lead in March when the games actually matter.
Last season's answer was no. The Red Wings went 2–8 over their final 10 games, surrendering nearly a goal and a half more per night than their season average in that stretch. The season didn't collapse because the forwards stopped scoring. It collapsed because the back end stopped holding. Now, with a thinner roster, an interim GM still finding his footing, and the captain watching from street clothes, Detroit is already allowing goals at the rate that ended their last season. The box score from the Pittsburgh win felt like a reason for optimism. The 10-game trend is a reason to be worried.