Duren's Clock Is Running Out—and So Is Detroit's

Training camp is weeks away, and the most important question in Detroit has nothing to do with John Collins fitting next to Tobias Harris, or whether Gary Harris can replicate his late-season form over a full year. The defining question is simpler and more urgent: is Jalen Duren going to be a Piston when the season tips off, or is this franchise about to watch its cornerstone walk into the most complicated offseason negotiation of its young rebuild?

The sign-and-trade possibilities are already being floated publicly, which tells you everything about where this stands. When those scenarios get published in August, it means a straightforward extension hasn't happened. It means both sides are at least entertaining the idea that the relationship has a price the other party won't meet. Detroit's front office has spent the summer reshaping its perimeter—bringing in Prince and Harris from Milwaukee, locking up Huerter for three years, signing Collins to anchor the power forward spot—and through all of it, the center position has operated on a single load-bearing column. Duren averaged 17.7 points and 9.9 rebounds last season on 64.8 percent shooting. That efficiency is not normal. That is a player operating at a level that justifies a very large number, and he knows it.

History is instructive here. Every time a franchise has let a young, elite-efficiency big reach this stage of contract talks without resolution, the leverage has shifted decisively toward the player. Karl-Anthony Towns, Bam Adebayo, Myles Turner—the teams that dithered paid more or paid in roster disruption. The teams that moved early locked in value. Detroit is not moving early. Detroit is moving late, and the depth chart reflects the risk: there is no viable backup center on this roster. None. The Pistons are one Duren foul-trouble game away from running a power forward at the five in a playoff series, which is a fine regular-season adjustment and a genuine crisis in May.

The 60-22 regular season was real. The 13-game win streak in November was real. But that record also masked something: Detroit won barely more than half its close games, the kind of games that define playoff rounds. The front office correctly diagnosed that as a perimeter and execution problem and addressed it aggressively. My read is they misread the priority order. You solve the center situation first, because everything else—the spacing Robinson provides, the defensive versatility Thompson brings, the frontcourt depth Collins adds—functions differently when Duren is on the floor versus when he isn't. He is not one piece of the machine. He is the machine's foundation.

The declaration is this: if Duren is not under contract when training camp opens, Detroit's window does not close—but it narrows in ways that will take years to fully understand. A sign-and-trade gets you assets, sure. It does not get you a 22-year-old center shooting 64 percent from the field. That player does not appear in a trade return. He appears once, in your own draft, and you build around him for a decade. The Pistons have done everything right this offseason except answer the one question that matters most. They have a month, maybe less, to get it right.