Denver Solved the Wrong Problem
The headline wrote itself: Nuggets match the offer, keep the wing, preserve the spacing. Spencer Jones stays, Oklahoma City gets nothing, and the front office looks decisive. That is the story everyone is telling. Here is the number that complicates it.
Ninety-four percent. That is the share of Denver's center production that Nikola Jokic accounts for — not as a rhetorical flourish but as a literal accounting of minutes and output at the position. I have been writing versions of this alarm since July 20, and the Jones decision did not move that number one decimal point in the right direction. Jonas Valanciunas is gone, signed with Zalgiris Kaunas and departed the NBA after 14 seasons. What remains behind Jokic at center is, by any honest measure, nearly nothing.
The Jones match was defensible on its own terms. He averaged 5.2 points and 3.0 rebounds on 50.9% shooting last season, and with Aaron Gordon, Peyton Watson, Trevon Brazile, and others all carrying day-to-day uncertainty heading into training camp, keeping a reliable wing on a fully guaranteed two-year, $12 million deal made basketball sense. The forward depth problem is real — Cameron Johnson is a legitimate starter, but the drop-off behind him was already significant before injuries complicated the picture further. I understand why the front office moved.
What I cannot understand is treating that move as the offseason's defining act while the center position sits essentially unaddressed. Valanciunas was already a flawed answer — in the final ten games of last season, his shot attempts spiked to 9.9 per game and his efficiency cratered alongside them, a player being worked past his useful range as Denver leaned on him out of necessity. He was the backup insurance, and even he was breaking down under the load. Now that insurance is gone entirely, and the Nuggets are above the second apron, which constrains what they can do next.
The deeper issue is what this offseason reveals about how Denver is thinking about risk. Jokic played 34.5 minutes a night last season across 75 games — a workload that reflects not just his dominance but the absence of anyone capable of giving him meaningful rest. The team went 16-13 in games decided by five points or fewer, a clutch record that significantly undercut the 55-win narrative. In the playoffs, both Jokic and Murray saw their efficiency collapse simultaneously as the volume climbed. These are connected problems: a center who cannot rest because there is no one behind him is a center who enters the fourth quarter of a playoff game carrying more fatigue than his opponent's defense should ever get to exploit.
My read is that the Jones retention was the easier call dressed up as the urgent one. Matching a restricted free agent's offer sheet is a transaction with a clear deadline and a clear cost. Solving center depth requires creativity, cap flexibility Denver just further reduced, and probably a willingness to accept an imperfect answer. The front office chose the problem it could solve cleanly. The problem it cannot solve cleanly is the one that will determine whether this team survives a second-round series, assuming it gets there. The championship window is still open. But Denver just spent real money reinforcing a door while leaving the foundation cracked.