Burleson's First-Inning Double Sinks Cincinnati, 2-1
Alec Burleson doubled to right in the first inning, scoring two runs, and St. Louis never surrendered the lead. That single swing sent Cincinnati's win probability tumbling from 47% to 31% — and the Reds spent the rest of the night chasing a deficit they couldn't close.
The story of the night was how early this game was effectively decided. With the score still 0-0 in the first, Burleson lined a double to right, scoring Herrera and Báez to put St. Louis up 2-0. That two-run cushion — built before Cincinnati had even recorded an out — proved to be exactly enough. Burleson finished 2-for-4 with both of St. Louis's RBIs, making him the clear offensive engine in what was otherwise a tight, low-scoring affair.
Cincinnati's best answer came in the fourth, when Dane Myers launched a 391-foot home run to left, cutting the deficit to 2-1 and giving the Reds a pulse. Myers went 2-for-4 on the night, accounting for Cincinnati's lone run, and looks like the one hitter in their lineup who genuinely threatened to flip the outcome. But one swing was all they got. Quinn Mathews started for St. Louis and worked 4.0 innings, allowing 2 hits, 1 earned run, and 3 walks while striking out 7 — a strikeout total that suggests he had swing-and-miss stuff even if the walk rate kept things uncomfortable. Kent Emanuel started for Cincinnati and went 5.0 innings, giving up 5 hits and 2 earned runs against 3 walks and 4 strikeouts — serviceable, but the damage was already done before he settled in.
The bullpen work on both sides was sharp late. Luis Mey threw 2.0 scoreless innings for Cincinnati, allowing just 1 hit and striking out 3, giving the Reds every opportunity to manufacture a tying run that never materialized. Riley O'Brien closed it out for St. Louis with a pristine 1.0 inning — no hits, no walks, 3 strikeouts — which appears to be exactly the kind of late-game execution a team needs when protecting a one-run lead. Jordan Walker and Everson Pereira each went 2-for-4 and 1-for-4 respectively for St. Louis, spreading the offensive contribution around even if Burleson's first-inning double was the only moment that truly mattered. Cincinnati will likely look at this one as a game that got away in the very first at-bat sequence — and that's a hard thing to shake.