Cubs Survive Conine's 430-Foot Scare, Escape Miami 6-5

Chicago built a four-run lead and nearly watched it vanish in a single swing. Griffin Conine's 430-foot two-run shot to right in the fifth cut the deficit to one and swung Miami's win probability from 14% to 31% — the closest the Marlins would get.

The Cubs did their damage early and in bunches. Michael Conforto got things started in the third with a 411-foot solo shot to center, and Ian Happ followed with a single to right that scored two more, pushing Chicago to 3-0. The fourth inning piled on: Crow-Armstrong singled to center to score Amaya and make it 4-0. Miami chipped back with a pair of runs on fielder's choices — Conine and Lopez each crossed the plate — but the Cubs answered in the fifth when Nico Hoerner singled to right to score Busch, stretching the lead to 5-2.

Then Conine happened. His two-run homer to right — 430 feet, gone — suddenly made it a one-run game at 5-4, and the ballpark had a pulse again. That was the single biggest momentum shift of the night, swinging Miami's win probability from 14% to 31%. Chicago responded the only way it could: Busch singled to right in the sixth to score Conforto and push the lead back to two. It looked like the Cubs had steadied the ship.

Miami wasn't finished. Kyle Stowers launched a 442-foot solo shot to center in the seventh — the longest ball of the game — to make it 6-5, and that's where it stayed. On the mound, Javier Assad was shaky, walking five batters over 4.2 innings while allowing three earned runs on just three hits — the kind of outing that wins only because the offense bailed him out. Ryan Gusto was worse for Miami, surrendering 10 hits and five earned runs in 4.2 innings, though Dax Fulton provided genuine relief with two scoreless frames. The story of the night, it appears, was Chicago's ability to manufacture runs in waves early enough to absorb Miami's late power surge. Hoerner going 3-for-5 with an RBI and Conforto scoring twice were the quiet engines behind a win that looked comfortable until it very much wasn't.