Encarnacion-Strand's 9th-Inning Double Saves Baltimore After STL Erases 7-Run Lead

St. Louis turned a 7-0 deficit into a 7-7 tie before Christian Encarnacion-Strand doubled to center in the ninth to score Vázquez and hand Baltimore an 8-7 win. The win-probability swing on that one swing was seismic — STL's home win percentage collapsed from 44% to 14% in a single at-bat.

Baltimore came out swinging like they had a flight to catch. In the first inning, Encarnacion-Strand singled to right to score Henderson, then Beavers followed with another single to right to bring home Basallo, and suddenly it was 2-0. Taveras put the game away early — or so it seemed — launching a 391-foot homer to right center that scored Encarnacion-Strand and Beavers, ballooning the lead to 5-0. Alonso kept the foot on the gas in the second, going deep to right at 369 feet with Narváez aboard to make it 7-0. Baltimore had seven runs in two innings, and McGreevy was getting carved up — he'd finish the night having allowed 10 hits and 7 earned runs across 5.0 innings.

Then St. Louis remembered it was still a baseball game. The Cardinals' fifth inning looks like one of the more stunning single-frame collapses you'll see this season. Burleson singled to center to score Torres and Wetherholt, cutting it to 7-3. Walker doubled to left to bring in Herrera, making it 7-4. Church then doubled to left, scoring both Burleson and Walker to pull within one at 7-6. And then — the gut punch — Fermín grounded out to shortstop, and Church scored on the play to tie it at 7-7. Four runs on a groundout. The Cardinals had erased a seven-run lead without hitting a home run in the inning. Gorman had gone deep to right center at 413 feet back in the second, but this comeback was built on line drives and hustle, not power.

With the game knotted heading to the ninth, Encarnacion-Strand — who finished 4-for-5 on the night — stepped up and delivered the dagger. His double to center scored Vázquez, and just like that, Baltimore led 8-7. The win probability told the whole story: STL's chances of winning at home swung from 44% to 14% on that one hit, a 31-point collapse in a single play. The story of the night was Encarnacion-Strand bookending the game — he started the scoring in the first and ended it in the ninth. Taveras (3 RBI) and Alonso (2 RBI, HR) did the early damage, but Encarnacion-Strand's 4-hit, 2-RBI performance appears to be the thread that held Baltimore's night together when St. Louis was threatening to steal it.