Herrera's Two-Run Double Steals It From Chicago in the Tenth
Ivan Herrera doubled to left in the tenth inning, scoring two runs to flip a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 Cardinals win. The swing from 36% to 100% home win probability on a single at-bat tells you everything about how this one ended.
For nine innings, this game belonged to the pitchers — and specifically to Matthew Boyd, who was flat-out excellent. Boyd threw 7.0 innings, allowing 4 hits and zero earned runs while walking two and striking out five. Dustin May matched the moment on the other side, holding Chicago to just 1 hit over 5.0 scoreless innings. Jacob Webb and Caleb Thielbar kept the Cubs' shutdown work going out of the bullpen, combining for 2.0 innings, 1 hit, zero runs, and five strikeouts between them. On paper, Chicago's pitching staff did more than enough to win this game. That's what makes the ending sting.
The Cubs broke through first, and they did it in a hurry. Pete Crow-Armstrong launched a 424-foot home run to right center in the tenth, scoring Swanson and putting Chicago up 2-0. It looked like the kind of blow that closes out a tight game. St. Louis answered immediately — Jordan Walker grounded into a fielder's choice that scored Church and cut the deficit to 2-1, though Nootbaar was thrown out at third trying to extend the inning. Chicago still had the lead. Then Herrera stepped in.
What happened next was the entire game in one swing. Herrera doubled to left, Walker scored, Wetherholt scored, and just like that the Cardinals led 3-2. The win probability lurched from 36% to 100% on that single play — a 64-point swing that ended the night on the spot. Herrera finished 3-for-5 with 2 RBI, and it's hard to argue he wasn't the difference. Crow-Armstrong went 1-for-5 with the homer and 2 RBI, and the story of the night appears to be that his big swing wasn't enough because St. Louis found a bigger one. Boyd deserved better. The Cubs' bullpen deserved better. But extra-inning baseball doesn't grade on effort, and Herrera made sure of that.