Suárez's 435-Foot Bomb Flips the Script in Cincinnati's 4-2 Win

Eugenio Suárez crushed a 435-foot home run to left center in the seventh inning, turning a one-run deficit into a one-run lead and swinging STL's win probability from 79% all the way down to 41%. Cincinnati closed it out from there, taking the final 4-2.

The game looked like it was slipping away from the Reds heading into the seventh. Cincinnati had grabbed the early edge in the fourth when Tyler Stephenson hit a ground rule double, scoring Bleday and moving Steer to third — CIN 1, STL 0. But St. Louis answered immediately in the fifth: Blaze Jordan doubled to left, scoring both Church and Herrera to flip the scoreboard to 2-1 in favor of the Cardinals. Jordan's two-RBI double was the only real damage STL managed all night, but for a stretch it looked like it might be enough.

Then came the seventh, and Suárez made the conversation irrelevant. His home run to left center — 435 feet — carried Stewart home with it, and just like that Cincinnati led 3-2. That single swing moved STL's win probability from 79% to 41%, a 39-point collapse in one at-bat. That's the story of the night: one massive, decisive moment that erased everything St. Louis had built. Suárez finished 2-for-4 with the homer, 2 RBI, and a run scored — the kind of line that wins ballgames.

Cincinnati added an insurance run in the ninth when Stewart singled to left, scoring De La Cruz to make it 4-2, and that was the ballgame. On the mound, the pitching picture was genuinely interesting. Dustin May was sharp for St. Louis — 6.0 innings, 7 hits, just 1 earned run, 8 strikeouts — and it appears he gave his team every chance to win. Rhett Lowder, meanwhile, allowed 2 earned runs over 5.0 innings on just 1 hit, which looks like a case where the run-prevention numbers flatter him a bit given the two walks. Emilio Pagán was clean out of the Cincinnati bullpen — 1.0 inning, no hits, no runs, 2 strikeouts — and Ryne Stanek matched that for St. Louis. The bullpens held, which meant the game came down entirely to that seventh-inning swing. Cincinnati's offense spread the damage around — Stephenson, Stewart, Nathaniel Lowe, and De La Cruz all contributed — but Suárez was the one who broke St. Louis's back.