Olson's 416-Foot Blast Breaks Baltimore's Back in Extra Innings

Matt Olson hit a three-run homer to right center — 416 feet — in the 10th inning to blow the game open, swinging Baltimore's win probability from 34% to 4% in a single swing. Atlanta escaped with a 7-6 win on July 24, surviving a furious Baltimore comeback that made the final score far closer than it deserved to look.

Baltimore looked in control early. Christian Encarnacion-Strand doubled to left in the second, scoring Holliday and Taveras to put the Orioles up 2-0, and the home side answered Atlanta's fourth-inning rally — which tied it at 2 on a Dubón sacrifice fly and a Riley single — with a Holliday sacrifice fly of his own to retake the lead at 3-2. Trevor Rogers was doing his part, working 7.0 innings and allowing just 2 earned runs on 6 hits with 6 strikeouts and zero walks. That's a quality start by any measure, and the story of the night looked like it might be Rogers keeping Atlanta's lineup honest deep into the game.

Then the 10th inning happened, and it happened fast. A fielder's choice grounder by Jarvis scored Hicklen to tie it, but the play unraveled further when a throwing error by second baseman Holliday allowed Bart to reach third and Jarvis to stay at second. That set the table for Olson, who needed no further invitation — his 416-foot shot to right center cleared the bases and made it 7-3 Atlanta, a four-run swing that appears to have been the definitive moment of this entire game. The win probability numbers confirm it: Baltimore went from a 34% chance of winning to just 4% on that one pitch.

To Baltimore's credit, they didn't fold. Encarnacion-Strand — who had already driven in two with his second-inning double — launched a two-run homer to right center (396 feet) in the bottom of the 10th to make it 7-6, and a Jackson sacrifice fly had already cut the deficit to three before that. Encarnacion-Strand finished 2-4 with 4 RBI and a run scored, which looks like the kind of individual performance that deserves a win around it. It didn't get one. Drake Baldwin's 389-foot solo shot in the eighth had tied the game at 3 before the extras chaos, and Atlanta's bullpen arm Elieser Hernandez threw 3.0 innings of one-hit, scoreless ball to bridge the gap. Atlanta's offense was opportunistic, Baltimore's late surge was real, but Olson's blast was simply too much to overcome.