Paredes Three-Run Blast Slams the Door on Miami

Isaac Paredes hit a three-run homer to left in the fifth inning that swung Houston's win probability from 72% to 93%, turning a one-run edge into a four-run cushion. The Astros held on from there, beating the Marlins 5-3.

Houston wasted no time putting pressure on Miami. Jeremy Peña opened the scoring in the first with a 405-foot shot to left center, and the Astros pushed it to 2-0 in the second when a Spence double to right scored Wade Jr. For a stretch, it looked like Tatsuya Imai — who struck out eight over six innings while allowing just one earned run — might not need much more than that. The Marlins finally cracked the scoreboard in the fifth when Kyle Stowers doubled to center to score Lopez, cutting the deficit to 2-1 and giving Miami a foothold.

Then Paredes happened. With Peña and Yordan Alvarez on base, Paredes launched a 388-foot homer to left that cleared the bases and made it 5-1 in an instant. The win probability swung from 72% to 93% on that single swing — the kind of at-bat that doesn't just change a score, it changes the entire complexion of a game. That was the story of the night: Miami had a pulse, and Paredes ripped it out. Alvarez went 2-for-4 on the evening, and Peña crossed the plate twice, but the three-run shot was the moment Houston stopped playing with fire and started playing with a lead that felt permanent.

Miami made it interesting in the seventh. Joe Mack crushed a 435-foot two-run homer to right center — the longest ball of the night — scoring Javier Sanoja and pulling the Marlins within 5-3. Sanoja and Stowers each went 2-for-4 or better, so the lineup wasn't completely overmatched. But Houston's bullpen slammed the door: Bennett Sousa worked a clean final inning, allowing nothing. Ryan Gusto had done the same for Miami's side, throwing two scoreless innings after Tyler Phillips was pulled having allowed five hits and two earned runs in 4.1 frames. The Marlins' pitching staff appears to have found something in Gusto, but it came too late to matter on this night. Houston wins, 5-3.