Nootbaar's 435-Foot Bomb Buries Atlanta Early, STL Wins 4-1

Lars Nootbaar hit a 435-foot three-run homer in the first inning that swung the win probability from 52% to 78% in one swing, and St. Louis never looked back. Matthew Liberatore then locked things down with 6.0 innings of shutout ball, and Atlanta spent the rest of the night chasing a lead it never had.

The game was effectively decided before Atlanta could blink. With Herrera and Walker already on base in the bottom of the first, Nootbaar launched a 435-foot shot to right center, plating all three runs and putting St. Louis up 3-0. That single swing moved the home win probability from 52% to 78% — a 26-point lurch that tells you everything about how lopsided the early going was. By the fourth inning, Blaze Jordan singled to center to score Nootbaar again, and just like that it was 4-0. Atlanta's night was already a salvage operation.

The pitching story is genuinely interesting, and it cuts both ways. Liberatore was excellent — 6.0 innings, 4 hits, zero earned runs, 1 walk, and 6 strikeouts. He gave St. Louis exactly what it needed after the offense handed him a cushion. On the Atlanta side, Owen Murphy was actually sharp in his 3.0 innings: no hits, no walks, 3 strikeouts. The problem was what came after. Reynaldo Lopez took over and gave up 5 hits and 4 earned runs across 5.0 innings — the damage that made the final score what it was. The story of the night appears to be that Atlanta's bullpen construction left Lopez exposed to absorb the bulk of St. Louis's offense, and he couldn't hold it.

Atlanta's lone bright spot came in the seventh when Mauricio Dubón hit a 401-foot homer to left center, cutting the deficit to 4-1 and at least putting something on the board. Michael Harris II went 1-for-4 but didn't factor into the scoring. The Braves finished with just 1 run on what looks like a night where the lineup never found any rhythm against Liberatore's command. St. Louis, meanwhile, got contributions up and down the order — Herrera, Walker, Nootbaar, and Jordan all scored or drove in runs — and George Soriano closed it out with a clean inning of relief, striking out two. This one wasn't particularly close after the first pitch of the second inning.