Chisholm's Ninth-Inning Blast Robs Washington of a Sure Win
Washington had an 81% chance of winning heading into the ninth inning. Then Jazz Chisholm Jr. hit a two-run homer to right, Jasson Domínguez scored, and the win probability cratered to 18% in a single swing.
New York came out swinging early. Ben Rice opened the scoring in the first with a 387-foot shot to left center, and for a moment it looked like the Yankees were going to control this game wire to wire. Washington had other ideas. In the third, James Wood scored on a Crews groundout double play to knot it at one, and in the fourth Domínguez answered with a 409-foot blast to center to put New York back in front. That's where things stood heading into the seventh — a tidy, low-scoring game with both starting pitchers keeping hitters mostly honest.
The seventh inning is where Washington seized control, and it looked like they were going to hold it. Keibert Ruiz launched a 371-foot homer to left to tie the game at two, and then Wood — who finished 3-for-5 on the night — crushed a 419-foot shot to right center to give the Nationals a 3-2 lead. Washington's bullpen, specifically Carson Palmquist, was sharp: 3.0 innings, 3 hits, 1 earned run, 4 strikeouts. With the home side up by one and three outs to go, that 81% win probability felt entirely reasonable. The story of the night appeared to be Wood announcing himself as the best player on the field.
Then the ninth happened. Chisholm Jr. — who had been quiet all night at 1-for-4 — sent a 374-foot drive to right, Domínguez scored ahead of him, and just like that New York led 4-3. The win probability swung from 81% to 18% on one pitch. Austin Wells immediately followed with a 387-foot homer to right center to make it 5-3, and David Bednar closed it out with a pristine 2.0 innings — no hits, no runs, no walks. Ryan Weathers did enough in 5.1 innings (6 hits, 1 earned run, 6 strikeouts) to keep New York in it, but the story of the night was ultimately a ninth-inning ambush that Washington never saw coming. Wood's 419-foot shot looks like a highlight that will sting for a while — a would-be game-winner that the final score erased entirely.