Steer's Two-Run Blast Sinks Baltimore, Reds Hold On 3-2

Spencer Steer hit a 374-foot home run to right center in the fifth inning, a swing that moved Cincinnati's win probability from 57% to 79% and effectively decided this game. The Reds held on from there, beating Baltimore 3-2 on July 5th.

The story of the night was how quickly one swing changed everything. Through four innings, this was a scoreless pitcher's duel — Kyle Bradish working efficiently for Baltimore, Nick Lodolo matching him for Cincinnati. Then Steer stepped in during the fifth, sent a ball 374 feet to right center, and Suárez crossed the plate ahead of him. Just like that, Cincinnati led 2-0, and the win probability told the whole story: a 22-point swing, from 57% to 79%, in one at-bat. Steer finished 1-for-3 with the homer, 2 RBI, and a run scored — the most impactful line in the box score by a wide margin.

Baltimore answered in the sixth when Coby Mayo singled to left and Taylor Ward scored, cutting the deficit to 2-1. Ward, who went 2-for-4 on the night, and Blaze Alexander, who was the Orioles' most consistent bat at 3-for-4, gave Baltimore plenty of contact — but contact wasn't the problem. Lodolo allowed 6 hits over 6 innings but surrendered just 1 earned run, and the Cincinnati bullpen slammed the door from there. Tejay Antone was particularly sharp, throwing a perfect seventh with 2 strikeouts. Brock Burke handled the eighth without incident. The Reds' late-inning arms look like a genuine weapon right now.

Bradish, for his part, pitched well enough to deserve a better fate. He went 7.2 innings, allowed 5 hits, struck out 5, and walked just 1 — but the 3 earned runs he surrendered were the margin. Sal Stewart's RBI double to left in the eighth, which scored Arroyo and pushed Cincinnati's lead to 3-1, was the back-breaker. Baltimore did make it interesting in the ninth — a sacrifice fly from Henderson scored Beavers to make it 3-2 — but that's as close as the Orioles would get. It's worth noting that Baltimore's closer, Ryan Helsley, is currently on the 15-day IL with right elbow discomfort, per ESPN, which appears to have complicated the Orioles' late-game options. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is a team that looks increasingly difficult to beat at home when its bullpen is this clean.