Fortes, Caminero Go Deep as Rays Spoil Houston's Fourth
Nick Fortes hit a home run and drove in two runs, and Junior Caminero delivered the go-ahead shot in the seventh as Tampa Bay beat Houston 3-1 on July 4th. The Rays needed every bit of it — this game was tied heading into the seventh and Houston held a 57% win probability before Caminero changed everything.
The first five innings were a pitchers' duel that neither starter could finish cleanly. Spencer Arrighetti went 6.0 innings for Houston, allowing just 2 hits, 1 earned run, and 1 walk while striking out 4 — a strong outing that looks, on paper, like it should have been enough. Nick Martinez matched him in quality if not duration, going 5.1 innings with 3 hits, 1 earned run, 1 walk, and 3 strikeouts before handing it off. The game was scoreless until the sixth inning cracked it open in back-to-back fashion.
Fortes got Tampa Bay on the board first, homering to left center 391 feet to make it 1-0. Houston answered immediately — Yordan Alvarez crushed one 427 feet to right center to tie it at 1-1, and just like that the game was reset. That's where it stood heading into the seventh, with Houston holding a 57% win probability at home. Then Caminero — who is reportedly committed to the All-Star Home Run Derby on July 13 — homered to left, 374 feet, and swung that win probability from 57% to 36% in a single swing, a 21-point shift that effectively flipped the game. Tampa Bay led 2-1, and the Astros never recovered.
The Rays put it away in the eighth when Fortes doubled to center, scoring Walls to push the lead to 3-1. Fortes finished 2-for-3 with the homer, the double, 2 RBI, and a run scored — the story of the night was his bat showing up twice when it mattered most. Bryan Baker closed it out with a clean 1.0 inning of relief — no hits, no walks, one strikeout — while Enyel De Los Santos absorbed the damage for Houston over 2.0 innings, allowing 2 hits and 1 earned run. Alvarez's 427-foot blast was the lone bright spot for an Astros offense that managed just 1-for-4 from Isaac Paredes and couldn't generate anything after the sixth. Tampa Bay appears to have found a formula tonight: let the pitching keep it close, then let the power do the talking.