Avalanche Roll Into Calgary to Kick a Winless Flames Squad
Colorado arrives at Scotiabank Saddledome on Thursday night carrying a 2-1-0 record and genuine momentum, while Calgary sits at 0-3-0 and desperately needs a result in front of its home crowd. There's no model lean to anchor this one, so the tape — and the early-season numbers — have to do the talking.
The gap between these two teams right now is hard to ignore. Colorado has points in two of three games to open the year; Calgary has none. That's not a small sample size quirk you can wave away — it's a real and present problem for a Flames group that hasn't found a way to get into the win column yet. Playing at home matters, but home ice only helps if you can generate enough to make the opponent uncomfortable, and nothing in Calgary's 0-3-0 start suggests they've cracked that code.
On the Colorado side, Nathan MacKinnon is doing what MacKinnon does. Five points through three games — three assists, two of which presumably set up teammates — puts him at the center of everything the Avalanche generate offensively. Artturi Lehkonen leads the team with three goals, which is a genuinely impressive clip this early. Scott Wedgewood is expected to start in net for Colorado, and how he handles a Flames team that will be pressing for its first win shapes the entire complexion of the game.
For Calgary, the offensive picture is thin. Ryan Strome leads the team with one goal. Joel Farabee has been the most active playmaker with two assists and two points, but two points as a team leader through three games is a number that tells you everything about where the Flames offense stands. Devin Cooley is expected to get the start in goal, and he'll need to be sharp — potentially the best player on the ice for his team — if Calgary is going to manufacture anything here. There's no validated model read for this game, so I won't pretend there's a clean lean. What I will say is this: the underlying numbers favor Colorado, the star power favors Colorado, and the pressure of a must-win situation at home is a double-edged sword for a Flames team that hasn't shown it can handle adversity yet. Watch MacKinnon. Watch whether Cooley can steal something early.