Abrams and the Nationals Host a Mets Team With Nothing Left
Two teams well below .500 meet at Nationals Park for a 12:35 PM ET first pitch, and while the standings say garbage time, the individual performances on the field say otherwise. Our model doesn't have a validated read on this one — so instead of a prediction, let's talk about what actually matters heading into this afternoon.
The Nationals (76-84) hold a slight edge over the Mets (73-87) in the standings, and at this stage of the season that gap is mostly academic. What isn't academic is CJ Abrams. The Washington shortstop leads his team in both home runs (33) and RBI (105), and those aren't empty-schedule numbers — 33 home runs and 105 RBI represent a legitimate breakout season by any measure. James Wood checks in at .265 for Washington, giving the Nationals a credible top of the order to work with against whatever New York sends to the mound.
For the Mets, the offensive picture is more scattered. Juan Soto's 27 home runs are the team's best power figure, and Bo Bichette has driven in 78 runs to lead the club in RBI. Carson Benge sits at .277, the best average among the Mets' key contributors. None of those numbers are embarrassing, but none of them match the singular force Abrams has been in Washington's lineup all season. Jonah Tong is expected to start for New York, while Connelly Early is set to take the mound for the Nationals — two names that don't carry much September weight, which means the offenses will likely dictate the tone here.
Without a validated model read, I'm not going to manufacture a lean. What I will say is this: Abrams is the most dangerous player on either roster today, and if Early can give Washington five serviceable innings, the Nationals' lineup has the firepower to make life uncomfortable for a Mets team that has been treading water for months. This is a day game with nothing on the line in the standings, which historically is when individual hitters — not pitchers — take over. Watch Abrams. Watch Soto. The rest will sort itself out.