Skenes vs. Leahy: Pirates Host Cardinals in Late-Season Showdown

Pittsburgh and St. Louis close out a season that has gone very differently for each club, with the Pirates sitting at 80-78 and the Cardinals buried at 77-81. The pitching matchup alone makes this worth watching — Paul Skenes is expected to take the mound for Pittsburgh against Kyle Leahy, who is set to start for St. Louis.

The gap in the standings tells the story heading into this afternoon's 12:35 PM ET first pitch at PNC Park. Pittsburgh has clawed to 80-78, still playing meaningful baseball deep into September. St. Louis, at 77-81, is in a different position entirely — playing out the string with little left to gain beyond individual milestones and organizational evaluation. That asymmetry in urgency tends to matter, and it matters here.

On the mound, the Cardinals are expected to send Kyle Leahy against one of the most talked-about arms in the game. Paul Skenes is projected to start for Pittsburgh, and that alone tilts the conversation toward the Pirates. Meanwhile, St. Louis will need its offense to carry weight. Alec Burleson has been the Cardinals' most productive bat this season, hitting .279 with 112 RBI — a legitimate run-producer. Jordan Walker adds pop with 28 home runs. The question is whether that lineup can do enough damage against Skenes to stay competitive.

For Pittsburgh, the offensive centerpiece is Brandon Lowe, who leads the Pirates with 34 home runs and 94 RBI — a genuine power threat capable of changing a game with one swing. Nick Gonzales brings a different dimension, hitting .301 and giving Pittsburgh a contact option at the top of the order. That combination of contact and power makes the Pirates' lineup genuinely dangerous, particularly at home. Our model doesn't have a validated read on this one, so we're not pushing a side — but the structural advantages here are hard to ignore. Pittsburgh is the home team, playing with more on the line, and they're rolling out a premier starter. St. Louis will need a strong outing from Leahy and timely production from Burleson and Walker just to keep it close.