Cubs Host Struggling Pirates at Wrigley With Playoff Positioning on the Line

The Chicago Cubs bring an 83-66 record into Sunday's 2:20 PM ET matinee at Wrigley Field, where the stakes are real and the opponent — a Pittsburgh Pirates squad sitting at 74-75 — is running out of runway. No validated model read exists for this one, so the matchup itself has to do the talking.

Matthew Boyd is expected to take the mound for Chicago against a Pirates lineup that, on paper, carries some genuine danger. Pittsburgh's Brandon Lowe has slugged 29 home runs and driven in 83 runs on the season — that's a middle-of-the-order bat that can change a game in a single swing. Nick Gonzales is hitting .305, which means the top of Pittsburgh's order isn't something Boyd can sleepwalk through. Bubba Chandler is expected to start for the Pirates, and he'll be walking into one of the louder afternoon environments in the sport.

On the Chicago side, Pete Crow-Armstrong is the story of the season and arguably one of the most compelling players in the National League right now. Forty-one home runs and 98 RBI is a legitimate MVP-caliber line, and a .279 average means he's not just a power bat swinging for the fences — he's a real hitter. Opinion: Crow-Armstrong has the kind of season that makes opposing pitchers rethink their entire game plan, and Chandler will need to be precise if he wants to keep the Cubs' offense from burying Pittsburgh early.

There's no validated model read for this game, and that's worth being straight about rather than papering over with false confidence. What the numbers do tell us plainly: the Cubs are the better team by record, they're playing at home, and their best player is having one of the better offensive seasons in the organization's recent memory. The Pirates aren't dead — Lowe's power and Gonzales's average give them a credible threat — but a road game at Wrigley against a Cubs team with 83 wins is a steep ask for a club still hovering around .500. Watch Crow-Armstrong's at-bats against Chandler early. That matchup will likely set the tone.