Alvarez vs. Yankee Stadium: Astros Need a Statement Win

A Houston team teetering at 66-67 walks into Yankee Stadium on Thursday night to face a New York club that has been one of baseball's better teams at 75-57 — this is not a neutral setting, and the stakes are anything but even. Our model doesn't have a validated read on this one, so we're going to break down the matchup the old-fashioned way.

The pitching matchup alone makes this worth watching. Gerrit Cole is expected to take the mound for New York, and whenever he's on the hill at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees are a difficult team to beat. For Houston, Hayden Wesneski is set to start — and the Astros will need a quality outing from him if they have any hope of stealing a game in this environment. Houston's offense has the firepower to hang with anyone, but the margin for error against a 75-win Yankees squad is razor thin.

The name that matters most for the Astros is Yordan Alvarez. He's hitting .322 on the season with 36 home runs and 91 RBI — numbers that put him in the conversation for the best hitter in the American League. If Houston is going to make noise tonight, it runs through Alvarez. One swing from him can change the complexion of any game, and Yankee Stadium's short porch in right field is not exactly a deterrent for a left-handed power hitter of his caliber. That last point is opinion, but the underlying numbers are not.

On the New York side, Ben Rice has quietly put together a remarkable season — 35 home runs and 83 RBI make him one of the more underrated power threats in the league right now. Cody Bellinger is hitting .258 and gives the Yankees lineup a professional at-bat in the middle of the order. With no validated model read available for tonight's game, we're not going to manufacture a lean — what we can say is that the Yankees' record, home-field advantage, and the Cole matchup all point toward New York being the logical favorite. But Alvarez is the kind of player who makes logical arguments irrelevant.