Diamondbacks and Red Sox Collide at Fenway in Tight Wild Card Race
Two teams separated by a single game in the standings meet Tuesday night at Fenway Park, and neither can afford to treat this like a throwaway. The model doesn't have a lean on this one — which, honestly, tells you something about how evenly matched these clubs look on paper.
Arizona (66-60) comes into Boston carrying a lineup that doesn't scare you with one big bat — it grinds you down. Gabriel Moreno is hitting .307, which is the kind of average that keeps opposing pitchers honest deep into counts. The real danger, though, is Nolan Arenado, who has 20 home runs and 62 RBI on the season. Arenado at Fenway, with that short left-field wall, is a matchup worth circling. Merrill Kelly is expected to take the mound for Arizona, and how he handles Boston's lineup in that bandbox will set the tone early.
Boston (67-58) has its own power threat, and it's hard to ignore. Willson Contreras leads the Red Sox with 25 home runs and 73 RBI — numbers that put him among the more productive catchers in the game this season. Ceddanne Rafaela is hitting .288 and gives the lineup a contact option at the top that can create problems before Contreras even steps in. Ranger Suarez is set to take the mound for the Red Sox, and pitching at Fenway against a lineup with Arenado lurking is never a comfortable assignment. Suarez will need to work carefully.
Our model doesn't have a validated read on this game, and I'm not going to manufacture conviction where there isn't any. What I will say is this: when two teams are this close in the standings and this evenly constructed, the game often comes down to one sequence — a Contreras missile off the Monster, or Arenado turning on a fastball that catches too much of the plate. Both outcomes feel equally plausible tonight. Watch the pitcher-Arenado matchup specifically; if Kelly can keep him in the yard, Arizona has a real shot. If Contreras gets to Suarez early, Fenway will be loud and Boston will be in control. Tune in on MLB.TV, DBACKS.TV, or NESN at 7:10 PM ET.