Rockies Bring Goodman's Power to Busch; Cardinals Need a Statement

St. Louis sits at 57-58 — close enough to relevance that every home game carries weight, and close enough to mediocrity that a loss to a 45-70 Colorado squad would sting. The Rockies may be deep in the basement, but they're not walking into Busch Stadium without a weapon.

The storyline on the Colorado side starts and ends with Hunter Goodman. Thirty-three home runs and 66 RBI on a team that has won fewer than 40 percent of its games is a remarkable individual performance — Goodman is producing at a clip that demands attention regardless of the standings. Jake McCarthy adds a different dimension at .293, giving the Rockies a contact presence at the top of the order that can make life uncomfortable for any pitching staff. Ryan Feltner is expected to start for Colorado, and how he navigates a Cardinals lineup that has real teeth will set the tone early.

For St. Louis, Jordan Walker is the name to watch. His 81 RBI lead the team and reflect a run-production consistency that the Cardinals need amplified down the stretch. Walker's 22 home runs give him legitimate pop, and a matchup against a Rockies pitching staff that has struggled all season could be a spot where he does damage. Alec Burleson at .287 provides a reliable contact bat to complement Walker's power, and the Cardinals will need both clicking if they want to put this game away early. Kyle Leahy is set to take the mound for St. Louis — his performance against a Goodman-led lineup will be the critical variable on the home side.

Our model doesn't have a validated read on this one, so we're not going to manufacture a lean where there isn't one. What the numbers do tell us is this: a Cardinals team hovering just below .500 at home against a Rockies club that ranks among the worst records in baseball should be treating this as a must-win opportunity. St. Louis has the lineup depth and the home-field edge. Whether Leahy can keep Goodman in the yard is the single biggest question of the night. First pitch at Busch Stadium is set for 8:15 PM ET.