Skenes vs. Greene: Pirates and Reds Collide in a Pitcher's Showcase

Two teams hovering near .500 meet Friday night at Great American Ball Park in a game that could matter come September. The pitching matchup alone makes this worth watching — but the offensive firepower on both sides refuses to be ignored.

Paul Skenes is expected to take the mound for Pittsburgh, and whenever that happens, the conversation starts and ends with him. On the other side, Hunter Greene is set to start for Cincinnati — meaning this has the makings of a genuine ace-on-ace confrontation, the kind that tends to produce tight, low-scoring games where a single mistake gets punished hard. Both pitchers will need to be sharp, because neither lineup is short on danger.

For the Pirates (55-55), Brandon Lowe is the offensive engine — 23 home runs and 70 RBI on the season make him the most credible power threat in the Pittsburgh lineup. Nick Gonzales is hitting .316, which is a legitimate batting average, not a small-sample mirage. If Gonzales is getting on base and Lowe is driving him in, Pittsburgh has a real formula against a Reds staff that has had its struggles. Cincinnati (51-57) counters with Sal Stewart, who leads the club with 22 home runs and a team-best 80 RBI — that RBI total is quietly one of the better marks in the NL, and it signals a hitter who produces in situations that matter. Elly De La Cruz is batting .279, and his combination of contact and athleticism makes him a constant threat to change a game's complexion in ways that don't always show up in a traditional box score.

Our model doesn't have a validated read on this one, so we're not going to manufacture a lean where there isn't one. What we can say — and this is opinion, not prophecy — is that a Skenes-Greene matchup at Great American Ball Park, with legitimate power hitters on both sides, is exactly the kind of game that stays close deep into the seventh and gets decided by one swing. First pitch is 6:10 PM ET on MLB.TV and Reds.TV. Don't miss the early innings.