Diamondbacks and Pirates Collide in a Tight NL Wild Card Battle
One game separates these two clubs in the standings, and a noon matinee at PNC Park could shift the balance in a crowded wild card picture. Our model doesn't have a read on this one — which, honestly, tells you something about how evenly matched this game looks on paper.
Arizona (56-52) arrives in Pittsburgh holding a one-game edge over the Pirates (55-53), and that razor-thin margin makes every at-bat feel consequential. Eduardo Rodriguez is expected to take the mound for the Diamondbacks, while Jared Jones is set to start for Pittsburgh. Two pitchers, two teams separated by a single game — the kind of setup that makes a Wednesday afternoon feel like October.
For Arizona, the offensive conversation begins and ends with Ketel Marte. He leads the Diamondbacks with 19 home runs and 61 RBI, and he's the bat Pittsburgh's pitching staff will need to neutralize early and often. Ildemaro Vargas is hitting .273 and provides a contact option in the lineup, but Marte is the engine. If Jones can keep the ball out of Marte's wheelhouse, Arizona's offense becomes considerably more manageable.
Pittsburgh counters with a lineup that has legitimate teeth. Nick Gonzales is hitting .315, making him one of the more dangerous contact hitters in this game. Brandon Lowe leads the Pirates with 22 home runs — more than Marte — and Ryan O'Hearn is the quiet force in the middle of the order with 69 RBI, the highest total among any player in this matchup. That's a run-production number that demands respect. The Pirates don't need to manufacture runs; they can put the ball over the fence and drive it in with men on base. Our model doesn't have a validated read on this game, and rather than dress up uncertainty as insight, we'll call it what it is: a genuine coin flip between two clubs fighting for the same real estate in the standings. Watch Marte against Jones, watch O'Hearn in high-leverage spots, and watch whether Rodriguez can keep Lowe in the ballpark. First pitch at PNC Park is set for 12:35 PM ET.