Cubs Bring NL Contender Swagger Into Busch Stadium Tuesday Night
A seven-game gap in the standings separates these two NL Central rivals, and tonight at Busch Stadium the Cardinals need a statement win badly. Chicago rolls in at 60-46, St. Louis sits at a flat .500 — the stakes for the home side couldn't be clearer.
The Cubs send Colin Rea to the mound, with Michael McGreevy expected to start for St. Louis in what shapes up as a pitching matchup between two arms that don't generate a lot of national buzz — which means the offenses could end up deciding this one. Chicago's lineup has a genuine difference-maker at the top in Pete Crow-Armstrong, who is hitting .288 with 23 home runs on the season. That combination of contact and power from a player who profiles as an up-the-middle guy is legitimately impressive, and he's the kind of hitter who can single-handedly flip a game against a starter who isn't commanding the zone. Dansby Swanson adds the run-production backbone with 61 RBI — quiet, consistent, and exactly the type of middle-of-the-order presence that wins series on the road.
St. Louis isn't without weapons. Jordan Walker leads the Cardinals with 22 home runs and 77 RBI — that RBI total is the most of any player in this game by a significant margin, and it signals a hitter who has been doing real damage with runners on base all season. Alec Burleson is hitting .286, giving the Cardinals a second legitimate contact threat in the lineup. If McGreevy can keep the Cubs off the bases, Walker and Burleson have the tools to make Chicago pay. The problem is that a 53-53 record tells you this Cardinals team has been inconsistent, and inconsistency at home against a club seven games over .500 is a dangerous combination.
Our model doesn't have a validated read on this game tonight, so we're not going to manufacture a lean where one doesn't exist. What we can say is that the talent gap between these rosters is real — Chicago has the better record for a reason — and the Cardinals are in the position of needing to prove something rather than simply playing their game. Watch Walker early. If he gets a pitch to drive in the first few innings, Busch Stadium will be loud and McGreevy will have something to work with. If the Cubs' lineup gets to McGreevy before that happens, this could get uncomfortable fast for the home side.