Two Struggling Clubs Meet at Citi Field — Soto Holds the Cards

Neither the Red Sox nor the Mets are playing winning baseball right now, and Sunday's 1:40 PM ET matinee at Citi Field is a chance for one of them to at least feel better about the week. Our model doesn't have a validated read on this one, so we're going straight to the tape on personnel and matchup dynamics.

Boston arrives at 45-48, a team that is technically above the .500 threshold in terms of games played but sitting three games under it in the standings — not a comfortable place to be in July. New York is in worse shape at 40-56, a record that demands some honest self-assessment from the Mets' front office. On paper, this is a game between two clubs searching for an identity, which makes the individual performances all the more consequential. Payton Tolle is expected to start for Boston, while Zach Thornton is set to take the mound for New York — two names that will need to be sharp if either team wants to walk away with a win.

On the offensive side, the storylines are clear. For Boston, Jarren Duran is the engine — 13 home runs and 44 RBI make him the most dangerous bat in the lineup, and any game plan the Mets construct has to account for him. Ceddanne Rafaela's .282 average gives the Red Sox a legitimate contact threat to build around as well. But the most compelling player on the field Sunday may be Juan Soto, who is doing something special for a Mets team that hasn't given its fans much to cheer about. A .294 average, 21 home runs, and 51 RBI — those are MVP-caliber numbers, full stop. Soto is carrying New York's offense almost single-handedly, and if Tolle doesn't locate his pitches, Citi Field will hear about it.

Without a validated model read, we're not going to manufacture a lean out of thin air — that's not how this works. What we can say is that this game hinges on two things: whether either projected starter can keep the opposing lineup honest, and whether Soto gets a pitch to drive. If he does, bet on him making the Mets look like a better team than their record suggests. Catch it on MLB.TV, NESN, or WPIX.