Two Struggling Clubs Collide at Citi Field Friday Night

Neither the Red Sox nor the Mets are playing winning baseball right now, and Friday night at Citi Field is a chance for one of them to stop the bleeding. This is a game between two teams that need it badly — and that alone makes it worth watching.

Boston comes in at 43-48, New York at 40-54, which means the standings offer no flattery to either side. The Red Sox are the marginally healthier club by record, but nobody in either dugout is feeling comfortable in mid-July. Sonny Gray is expected to start for Boston, while Nolan McLean is set to take the mound for the Mets — a pitching matchup that could define the entire tone of the evening depending on how early the offenses get to work.

On the Boston side, Jarren Duran is the name to circle. He leads the Red Sox in both home runs (13) and RBI (44), making him the primary threat in a lineup that needs someone to carry the offensive load. Ceddanne Rafaela is hitting .283, which gives Boston a legitimate contact option at the top of the order. For New York, Juan Soto is the story — a .297 average paired with 21 home runs makes him the most dangerous hitter on either roster tonight. Bo Bichette leads the Mets with 51 RBI, and if he and Soto are clicking in the same game, the Mets' offense can look like something worth fearing. The problem is that at 40-54, those performances haven't been consistent enough to matter in the standings.

Our model doesn't have a validated read on this one, so we're not going to manufacture a lean where there isn't one. What we can say is that this is a game where pitching depth and lineup execution matter more than any single star moment. Gray and McLean will set the table — how long they stay in it could be the deciding factor. Tune in at 7:15 PM ET on MLB.TV, Apple TV, or NESN.