Twins Try to Steal One at Yankee Stadium on Sunday
A struggling Twins squad at 43-47 walks into Yankee Stadium to face a Yankees team playing .557 ball at 49-39 — this is not a neutral-site affair. Our model doesn't have a validated read on this one, so we're breaking it down the old-fashioned way.
Minnesota arrives in the Bronx as a team that needs wins more than it can afford to give them away. Joe Ryan is expected to take the mound for the Twins, and how he handles a Yankees lineup that has been producing at a winning clip all season will go a long way toward determining whether Minnesota can pull off the road upset. Ryan's assignment is straightforward and unforgiving: keep the ball in the park and limit damage against a home team that has every structural advantage.
On the offensive side, Byron Buxton is the engine Minnesota has to rely on. He's hitting .269 with 25 home runs — genuine power threat numbers that demand respect from any pitching staff. Josh Bell adds a different dimension with 59 RBI, making him the Twins' most consistent run-producer in the lineup. If Minnesota is going to manufacture a win here, those two need to be central to it. A quiet day from Buxton, in particular, makes the Twins' path to victory considerably narrower.
For New York, Ben Rice has quietly become one of the more interesting offensive stories in the American League. He's slashing .267 with 24 home runs and 56 RBI — numbers that put him in the same conversation as Buxton as a middle-of-the-order force. Ryan Weathers is expected to start for the Yankees, and if he can keep Buxton in check and let Rice and the New York offense do their work, the home team's record advantage should translate to the final score. Without a validated model read to anchor a lean, the honest call is this: the Yankees' superior record, home-field setting, and a lineup anchored by Rice make them the logical side to trust — but Buxton alone gives Minnesota a puncher's chance every time he steps in the box. First pitch is set for 1:35 PM ET at Yankee Stadium, airing on Peacock and NBCSN.