Cole vs. Bennett: Yankees Bring the Heat to Fenway
A 15-game gap in the standings separates these rivals when they meet Saturday afternoon at Fenway Park, and the pitching matchup alone makes this one worth watching. Our model doesn't have a lean on this game — which, given the circumstances, might tell you something on its own.
The Yankees (48-33) arrive in Boston as one of the better teams in baseball, while the Red Sox (34-46) are grinding through a difficult first half. Gerrit Cole is expected to take the mound for New York, and when a staff ace shows up in a rivalry game at a hostile venue, the visiting team's margin for error shrinks considerably for the home side. Jake Bennett is set to start for Boston, and how he handles a Yankees lineup with genuine pop will go a long way toward determining whether the Red Sox can make this a competitive afternoon.
The player to circle on the New York side is Ben Rice, who is quietly having a breakout season. Rice is hitting .280 with 22 home runs and 53 RBI — numbers that put him among the more productive hitters in the American League at this stage of the year. He has the kind of left-handed power that Fenway's short porch can amplify, and Bennett will need to be precise if he wants to keep Rice in the ballpark. On the Boston side, Ceddanne Rafaela leads the club with a .281 batting average, giving the Red Sox a legitimate on-base threat at the top of the order. Willson Contreras provides the pop — 17 home runs and 48 RBI — and if Boston is going to manufacture a win against Cole, Contreras needs to be the one who does damage when opportunities arise.
Our model doesn't have a validated read on this game, so we're not going to manufacture a lean where one doesn't exist. What we can say is that the talent gap between these rosters is real, the pitching matchup heavily favors New York on paper, and Rice has the kind of season going that makes him dangerous in any environment. Watch how Bennett navigates the middle of the Yankees order in the first three innings — that sequence will likely set the tone for everything that follows. First pitch is at 1:00 PM ET on ABC.