Skenes vs. Abbott: Reds Visit Pittsburgh in a Pivotal Friday Clash
A five-game gap separates the Cincinnati Reds (37-42) from the Pittsburgh Pirates (41-40) in the standings, and Friday night at PNC Park is exactly the kind of game that either widens it or slams it shut. Our model doesn't have a validated read on this one — so the matchup itself has to do the talking.
The pitching setup alone makes this worth watching. Paul Skenes is expected to take the mound for Pittsburgh, and Andrew Abbott is set to start for Cincinnati — a pairing that puts two legitimate arms front and center before the lineup cards even matter. Neither starter comes with a guarantee; things can shift up to first pitch. But if this game goes as projected, the early innings figure to be tight, low-scoring, and decided on the margins.
On the offensive side, the Reds carry a genuine threat in Sal Stewart, who leads the club with 14 home runs and 55 RBI — numbers that make him the most dangerous bat Cincinnati is bringing into PNC Park. Elly De La Cruz is hitting .276, giving the Reds a contact presence at the top of the order to complement Stewart's power. Pittsburgh counters with a balanced attack: Nick Gonzales is hitting .297 to anchor the contact game, Brandon Lowe leads the Pirates with 19 home runs, and Bryan Reynolds has driven in 52 runs to give Pittsburgh legitimate middle-of-the-order punch. Lowe's power edge over Stewart is real, and in a game where starting pitching could suppress run totals, one swing can be the whole story.
With no validated model read available for this game, there's no algorithmic lean to anchor your decision-making — and that's worth being straight about rather than papering over with false confidence. What the numbers do tell you is that Pittsburgh holds the better record at 41-40, plays at home tonight, and has the power advantage in the lineup. Cincinnati needs wins to close ground. That pressure falls squarely on Abbott's shoulders and on Stewart's bat. Watch how Pittsburgh's lineup handles Abbott early — if Lowe gets to him before the fifth inning, this one could get away from the Reds fast.