Reds Visit Yankee Stadium Seeking Upset Against AL's Elite
A Cincinnati team sitting three games below .500 walks into Yankee Stadium on Sunday afternoon to face one of the better records in the American League. Our model doesn't have a strong lean on this one — which, given the gap in these two clubs' standings, might be the most interesting data point of all.
The Yankees (46-29) have built a commanding cushion atop their division, while the Reds (36-39) are still clawing to get back to respectability. On paper, this is a mismatch. But baseball has a way of humbling paper, and the pitching matchup gives Cincinnati at least a conversation to have. Chase Burns is expected to take the mound for the Reds, while Elmer Rodriguez is set to start for New York. Neither name carries the weight of a postseason ace, which means the offenses could end up doing the heavy lifting — and both sides have someone capable of delivering.
For Cincinnati, that someone is Sal Stewart. The third baseman is hitting .252 with 14 home runs and 53 RBI on the season — that RBI total is legitimately impressive and suggests he's been productive in situations that matter. If the Reds are going to steal one in the Bronx, Stewart needs to be the engine. On the other side, Ben Rice has been one of the Yankees' most consistent offensive contributors, slashing .288 with 21 home runs and 52 RBI. Rice has the kind of profile that punishes pitchers who leave anything over the plate, and a pitcher making his way through Yankee Stadium's short porch has to be aware of him every time he steps in the box.
Our model doesn't have a validated read on this game, and we're not going to manufacture conviction where there isn't any. What we can say is this: the Yankees are the better team by record, they're at home, and their lineup has a clear edge in proven production. But Burns has the arm to keep this competitive, and Stewart has the pop to make things uncomfortable in a hurry. Tune in at 1:35 PM ET on MLB.TV, Reds.TV, or YES — this one has the ingredients for a tighter afternoon than the standings suggest.